On the need for system-theoretic hazard analysis in the process industries

Most process hazard analysis (PHA) studies today are conducted using traditional methods such as the hazard and operability study (HAZOP). Traditional methods are based on a chain-of-events model of accident causality. Current models of accident causality are based on systems theory and provide a more complete representation of the causal factors involved in accidents. Consequently, it is logical to expect that PHA methods should reflect these models, that is, system-theoretic hazard analysis (STHA) should be used. Indeed, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) has been developed as such a method. STPA has been used in a variety of industries but, at this time, it has not gained acceptance by the process industries. This article explores the reasons for this situation. Expectations for PHA in the process industries are examined and issues for the application of STPA in the process industries are discussed. It is concluded that a variety of matters must be addressed before STPA can be considered as a viable PHA method for the process industries and the case for the use of STHA in the process industries is not yet proven.     

Insight into the safety distance of ground and underground installations in typical petrochemical plants

Petrochemical plants are continuously turning into large-size corporations, the installations of facilities show a developing trend from ground to underground because of the difference in land using rate. In this regard, the safety distance of petrochemical equipment buried in both ground and underground cases were investigated based on risk assessment. As a case study, gasoline tank and LPG tank set on the ground and underground are singled out to compare the risks involved. The research showed that the setting case of installation had a great influence on safety distance. Two cases have 80% reduction of equivalent safety distance compared with the rest of the cases. It was found that when the gasoline storage tank was placed underground alone, the PLL value decreased by 36.7%. Only LPG tank was placed underground, and the PLL decreased by 6.33%, and the gasoline and LPG storage tanks were placed underground simultaneously, the PLL value declined by 42.3%. Thus, the layout of plants could be further optimized, which can greatly improve the performances of land use efficiency and safety. In addition, this paper, the selection of embedding methods and the sensitivity of underground case to overpressure was resumed from two aspects: soil properties and burial depth. For the soil properties, it was found that the water saturated sandy soil with high air content and the low density unsaturated sandy soil had better effects on weakening overpressure. Such properties are particularly beneficial to reducing the occurrence rate of accidents. In terms of burial depth, it can be observed that as the burial depth was changed from 0.5m to 1.1m, the value of overpressure has dropped dramatically. When the burial depth was 2m, the damage to personnel and buildings has been greatly reduced beyond 2m from the explosion center.     

Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident

Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials.     

Risk assessment method of polyethylene dust explosion based on explosion parameters

The explosion characteristic parameters of polyethylene dust were systematically investigated. The variations in the maximum explosion pressure (P_max), explosion index (K_st), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC) of dust samples with different particle sizes were obtained. Using experimental data, a two-dimensional matrix analysis method was applied to classify the dust explosion severity based on P_max and K_st. Then, a three-dimensional matrix was used to categorize the dust explosion sensitivity based on three factors: MIE, MIT, and MEC. Finally, a two-dimensional matrix model of dust explosion risk assessment was established considering the severity and sensitivity. The model was used to evaluate the explosion risk of polyethylene dust samples with different particle sizes. It was found that the risk level of dust explosion increased with decreasing particle size, which was consistent with the actual results. The risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for dust explosion prevention in the production of polyethylene.     

滑坡体三维构造及稳定性分析

采用体元技术建立滑坡体真三维模型,通过基本三棱柱体构建具有复杂曲面结构的空间组合体,每个单元都赋予不同的属性,为滑坡体三维稳定性分析提供基本的前、后处理功能.以此为基础,并结合三维极限平衡分析计算方法,开发了相关的滑坡三维模拟与稳定性分析软件,并成功应用于清江库岸大型滑坡的三维仿真计算.     

公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难和不确定性分析

首先分析了公路网规划环境影响评价中的困难,即评价方法的不成熟和获取资料的困难;然后重点分析了评价中的公路网规划方案的不确定、环境信息的不确定、空间信息的不确定和环境影响程度的不确定;最后提出了 4种解决困难和降低不确定的方法,即制定公路网规划环境影响评价技术导则,使用基于情景分析的预测方法,广泛开展公众参与以及通过多方协作的方式开展环境影响评价工作.     

基于模糊聚类关联分析法的煤与瓦斯突出程度分析

运用模糊聚类分析方法对煤与瓦斯突出的样本集合进行分类,建立了不同突出程度的模糊模式.用关联分析确定待分析样本与模式的关联程度,以此预测预报样本的煤与瓦斯突出危险程度.实例分析表明,与模糊聚类分类后、将模式与待预报样本组成新样本集合进行聚类分析并以此分类结果进行预报的方法相比,这种预报方法不仅可靠程度高,而且能定量描述待报样本与模式的亲和程度.     

1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件不完全统计分析

对1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件进行了统计分析,以从总体上揭示这些事件的发生规律及其对城市水源地和供水安全的危害.采用文献检索方法,通过对1985-2005年<中国环境报>、<人民日报>、新华网等报刊和网络的检索,从发生日期、地点、污染物种类、事件简况4个方面统计中国城市水源地突发污染事件,经整理和筛选后共列出102起.这些突发污染事件的分析结果表明:1)中国城市水源地突发污染事件总体上呈数量逐年增多,危害增大的趋势;2)化学品和污水是主要污染物;3)河道交通事故和工厂泄漏事故是主要风险源;4)突发污染事件一般都造成了比较严重的经济社会影响,但缺乏相应的应急管理机制和应急部门;5)3个典型突发污染事件造成重大经济社会损失并引发社会高度关注,凸现了构建中国城市水源地突发污染事件应急机制的重要性和迫切性.     

1993-2003年特大火灾发生规律、特征及原因分析

火灾作为一种灾害现象,其发生与发展具有随机性和确定性的双重特性.火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的一种有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的原始火灾资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计性规律.本文从1993-2003年我国火灾形势着手,联系火灾形势发展过程中的火灾起数、火灾中人员伤亡和直接财产损失等大量数据,重点分析了特大火灾的原因及类别特征,总结了特大火灾发生发展的规律和趋势,为正确认识和预测我国火灾形势、做好特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考.     

2006年7-8月国内安全事故统计分析

统计了2006年7-8月国内发生的各种安全事故279起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,交通事故最多,占55.91%,其次是矿业事故(22.22%)、爆炸事故(9.32%)、其他事故(5.73%)、毒物泄露和中毒(4.66%)、火灾(2.15%).279起事故共死亡1 253人,伤1 519人,死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故52.27%、矿业事故26.74%、爆炸事故11.65%、其他事故4.79%、火灾2.39%、泄露中毒2.15%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故53.59%、泄露中毒17.38%、爆炸事故14.42%、矿业事故10.73%、其他事故2.63%、火灾1.25%.